According to MiningMetalNews, the industrial metals market, after experiencing severe fluctuations this year, has witnessed a differentiation in performance among commodities, with copper showing a stronger performance compared to other industrial metals. The demand for this metal is mainly supported by investments in power grids, renewable energies, and energy-intensive data centers related to artificial intelligence (AI). While metal markets have fallen from record prices to sharp declines over the course of a few weeks, and factors such as rising energy costs, inflation concerns, and uncertainty about interest rates have created turmoil, this downward trend has not had the same impact on all metals. While investments in power distribution networks and digital infrastructure support copper prices, metals like palladium and rhodium have come under pressure due to weakness in the automotive market.
Currently, base metals are caught in a conflict between two opposing forces; in the long term, electrification, energy transition, and the rapid expansion of data centers will drive up demand, but in the short term, weak economic growth, high energy prices, and the risk of strict monetary policies are putting pressure on the market. The LMEX index on the London Metal Exchange reached a historic record in early June, but shortly after, with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices, and the return of inflation concerns, it plummeted to its lowest level in three months, leading to investors selling assets to provide liquidity. According to analysis by Oilprice.com and assessments by Standard Chartered, metal prices will be heavily influenced in the second half of the year by US Federal Reserve policies, dollar fluctuations, China’s economic developments, and changes in trade tariffs. Standard Chartered also notes that production disruptions and imbalanced inventory distribution continue to cause sharp price volatility.
In this divided market, copper has emerged as a clear winner. London Metal Exchange prices in recent months, after reaching a record $14,000 in May, have largely remained between $13,000 and $14,000 per ton. Standard Chartered predicts that copper prices will remain high in the second half of the year, as mine production has been below expectations, and uncertainty about US tariffs and significant inventory shifts from Europe and Asia to the US are supportive factors. China’s signals are also positive, with the country’s imports of copper ore and copper products reaching 478,000 tons in June, a 4% increase from the same month in 2025. At the same time, declining inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicate a supply shortage in China’s domestic market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global copper demand will increase by around 7 million tons by 2040, with this metal registering the highest volume growth among critical minerals monitored by the agency. However, the IEA warns that announced mining projects so far only cover about 75% of 2035 demand, implying a potential 25% supply deficit.
In contrast, aluminum has had a more volatile performance. Due to the significant share of the Middle East in global production, disruptions in the region’s refineries drove prices up to over $3,700 per ton in early June (the highest level in four years). But with the improvement